Tuesday, 19 January 2016

Iran’s quagmire following Saudi embassy attack

January 2016
Iran actually received a major blow in the attack against the Saudi embassy in Tehran by the Revolutionary Guards and Bassij militia forces. This crises has led to escalating tensions between the two factions pinning Rafsanjani-Rouhani in one corner, against Khamenei in the other. Both sides are blaming the other for the establishment’s dead-ends.

“In a country there can’t be someone saying we are seeking to engage with the world, while another goes and attacks an embassy,” said Rouhani’s first vice president Es’hagh Jahangiri.
“If a number of people were planning to ruin the 2-year-long efforts of the Rouhani government, they couldn’t have done it any better,” said Sadegh Zibakalam, a member of the Rafsanjani inner circle. “It is as if they were emphasizing, and continue to do so, to send this message to the world to not fall for the smiles seen from [Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad] Zarif; nothing has changed and we have the necessary capabilities. As if there are people who insist to say to the world the wrong images the enemies of the Islamic Iran are trying to depict of us to the world, is not inaccurate.”
Amongst the political positions and press text seen from both factions it is quite obvious that Khamenei intended to hit a number of targets with one bullet. On one hand he sought to lift the spirits of his loyal forces, and on the other hand he ruined all the investment made by the Rafsanjani-Rouhani faction for engagement with the outside world, and prepare to eliminate a large number of their candidates in the two upcoming elections. However, the result did not turn out as Khamenei had sought, and the conclusion turned out to be against both of the regime’s factions. Khamenei’s plans were left in ruins and it is not clear what he will do with the opposing party’s candidates. However, considering the firm stance taken by Saudi Arabia and regional countries, along with international condemnations in response to this attack, the Iranian regime is now engulfed in a major dilemma and plight.
The Rafsanjani-Rouhani faction are in similarly poor conditions. As they admitted they see all their promises and wishes gone with the wind, and they are extremely concerned that all parties have now realized nothing has changed in the religious fascism ruling Iran, and as long as the “supreme leader” is ruling in Iran, nothing will truly change in this country. This makes it clear from this point forward that we will bear witness an increasing battle for hegemony in Iran, leaving both of the regime’s factions as losers in this regard.
In response, the position of Saudi Arabia and its partners are very explicit and crystal clear.
“Iran must make it clear; is it a government or an element of exporting revolution and warmongering… we will not allow Iran to insecure our region,” said Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir.
Of course, this was not merely a political position. In fact al-Jubeir in a joint press conference with Stefan De Mistura, the UN representative for Syria, emphasized Saudi Arabia will never back down from its political, military and economic support for the Syrian people and opposition, nor will it back down from the necessity to overthrow the Assad regime.
Saudi Arabia and its allies in the anti-terrorist coalition have shown to this day wherever their security is on the line, along with the situation in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and what actions Iran has taken in these countries, they mean business when making certain remarks.
Therefore, Iran is currently facing a major quagmire or left confused in a two-way intersection; to pull out or not of Syria, and afterwards Iraq, Lebanon and the entire region?! Or continue its meddling in the Middle East?

It is clear that the endpoints of both of these paths are nothing but this regime’s overthrow.

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