Sunday, 3 January 2016

Why is the fall of Assad a redline for Iran?

The Iranian regime is engaged in many issues and has a hand in many conflicts. It is a regime that instigates many seditions and turmoil. Yet it is now faced with many difficult options and it chooses to tackle them is decisive for its future. The drop of its influence is a sign of falling era.
There is a strategic reality that is the outcome of the war in Syria that has today turned into an international conflict.
It is true that many sides are now involved in the Syria conflict, turning it into an international dilemma. Different Iranian, Lebanese and Iraqi militia groups entered the Syrian conflict. Even Pakistani and Afghans militia forces affiliated to the Iranian regime are now involved in the crisis. These Shiite militia groups used the pretext of defending the holy Shiite shrines in Syria to legitimize their interventions. All this despite the fact that the Syrian people’s uprising began against the terrorist Assad regime and in order to topple it and not to protect and shrines or ancient sites. The Iranian regime managed its influence in this crisis with a psychopathic platform that ultimately led to the heavy civilian casualties. Then the Iranians decided to develop and spread their influence by dispatching IRGC forces and Quds Force commanders to the scene. Qassem Suleimani was assigned to lead the charge. The Iranian propaganda machine tried to turn him into a legend by showcasing his military activities in Iraq, Damascus and Yemen. However, a catastrophe was in the making. The casualty rate within the IRGC ranks in Syria skyrocketed and after that elite IRGC commanders such as Hossein Hamedani and many others were killed in action. Qassem Suleimani was recently severely injured in a battle in southern Aleppo. The regime pulled him out of the battle field and his fate is unknown!
Despite all the substantial damages, the defeat of the IRGC forces in Syria is a pivotal fact that came about from the Iranian leaders’ handling of the Syrian crisis. After the intervention of Russia in the Syrian conflict, things became more complicated in the region. The Iran- Russia alliance is based on one hand on arms deals, where Russia provides Iran with missiles, and on the other hand on the direct intervention of Russia on the scene in Syria to lift the pressure from the IRGC forces on the ground.
However, the degree and level that Iran is involved in regional conflicts is something of a constant matter and Iran cannot pull out of the battle fields. On the contrary it must continuously increase its level of involvement. Recently, the Iranian ground forces commander, Gen. Pourdastan, announced that Iran is ready to spread the influence of its staff in the small World War in Syria through the participation of the country’s Army, ground and air force. This will take things a lot farther than the participation of elite IRGC forces in Syria. This is occupation style influence in Syria that is unprecedented in international relations in the Middle East. The Iranians know well that the fall and annihilation of the Syrian regime is a backbreaking blow to their regional existence that will blow to pieces every effort that they have put to create and uphold their strategic alliance with the Assad dynasty. This failure will have a deep and shattering echo inside Iran and will leave those in power in Iran completely defenseless against international decisions. That is why Iranian officials constantly announce that the presence of Assad is a redline for Iran and it cannot be crossed! This is a clear sign that Iran will politically and morally face off with the Syrian people and the regional alliance.
The threat of the Iranian Army’s direct intervention in the Syrian conflict will be useless and will in no way shift the balance on the ground. Rather it will increase the regime’s collateral damages on the ground and it might even instigate the uprising of the Iranian people. Even Iran’s billion dollar arms deals with Russia won’t turn back the crumbling economy of the country and save it from its ultimate overthrow.
The facts on the ground say that the Iranian’s are facing an actual catastrophe on the ground and none of their lip service will save them from being crushed under the boots of the Levant revolutionaries.

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