November 2015
A serious divide amongst the Iranian regime’s
different power factions has formed following the July nuclear agreement signed
between the P5+1 and Iran known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA). On one side are Iranian regime president Hassan Rouhani and his mentor
Hashemi Rafsanjani, chair of the regime’s Expediency Council, are bent on fully
implementing the nuclear agreement. This faction believes the country is in
serious danger and if they don’t implement the nuclear deal their entire rule
will face a growing social rebellion. Through this argument they were able to
convince the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei to support their policies.
The other faction consists of hardliners who are
diehard opponents of the nuclear pact, with the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)
leading the pack. IRGC chief Mohammad Ali Jafari has time and again met with
Khamenei to convince him of ending his support for Rouhani on the nuclear deal.
However, due to the regime’s degrading economic conditions and the growing
social unrest, Khamenei declined and continued his support for Rouhani.
These two factions each have their own vision of
a solution for the regime in today’s extremely dire conditions. In their
opinion they behold the sole solution to relieve the regime from utter
disaster.
The Rouhani-Rafsanjani faction see the sole
method of saving the regime in negotiation with the United States and the West,
and therefore they are seeking to relieve themselves of their current
isolation, set aside the nuclear sanctions and find breathing room for their
regime. Of course, this faction knows quite well that in order to realize their
wishes they must also set aside their meddling in Middle East countries. This
is the predicament where they are forced to battle it out with the IRGC.
The opponent faction, represented by the IRGC,
believe the solution lies in sticking to the regime’s previous policy of
obtaining nuclear weapons and exporting terrorism to other countries. Through
such methods they seek to impose their state as a regional power on the U.S. to
promote their Islamic republic, being the Shiite version of the caliphate
established by ISIS.
Relying on its military and economic power the
IRGC enjoys assets in numerous countries and can pursue any policy it wishes in
those states. Therefore, to disrupt Rouhani’s policy prior to the full
implementation of the nuclear agreement and before Rouhani’s trip to Europe
they have launched various measures including arresting a number journalists
and intellectuals under bogus pretexts, tagging them as spies and elements of
foreign countries. Through this campaign they intend to portray an image of
Rouhani’s government to the outside world and international community as
incompetent regarding the country’s security and military dossiers. The
hardliners are also seeking to remind all relative parties that the IRGC has
the final world on all security and military matters, and if there is to be any
negotiation, it should be through the hardliners.
The closure of a McDonald restaurant in Tehran
was another measure taken by the IRGC recently. McDonald considered an American
icon was their pretext in this regard was, and to this end they are seeking to
block the path of American infiltration into Iran.
After Rouhani came to power the subjects of
Syria, Iraq and Yemen, previously controlled by the IRGC Quds Force, were
handed over to the Foreign Ministry and the regime’s top diplomat, Mohammad
Javad Zarif, oversaw these cases. Following the defeats suffered by Bashar
Assad, and the Iranian regime’s major setbacks in Yemen and then Iraq, these
dossiers were again turned back to the Quds Force.
These measures by the IRGC are aimed at
preventing Rouhani from pursuing a policy launched with the signing of the
nuclear agreement. Both of the regime’s factions believe the ayatollahs are in
dire conditions, yet the sole solution provided by each faction for this
predicament differs considerably from that of their opponents.
Daily executions of Iranian youths, reaching the
2,000 mark under Rouhani’s tenure, is one of the solutions both factions of the
regime agree upon; meaning executing and murdering any and all individuals
opposing this regime.
The result turns out to be a difference of
opinion between senior Iranian regime officials, depicting this truth that
their quarrel is all about who can expand their hegemony to further plunder the
Iranian people’s God given wealth. Their last objective is to actually serve
the people. The Iranian people have come to understand this fact that the only
solution lies in the all-out overthrow of this regime.
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