January 2016
Iran has heavily invested in maintaining the Assad regime in power in
Syria, and it appears that the overthrow of Bashar Assad is evaluated as a
prelude to its own downfall.
Iran’s Quds Force had from along ago, and months before its operations
in Aleppo, taken action to dispatch Iraqi Shiite militias under the Quds Force
command and Afghan mercenaries of “Fatemioun Division” to provide the necessary
troops on the ground in the war and Syria and fight alongside the Lebanese
Hezbollah members. These troops play the role of “disposable” soldiers in
Tehran’s war strategy in Syria, similar to the Bassij members the mullahs’ sent
to battle against Iraq back in the 1980s. The fact that they will be killed is
insignificant. What is important, however, is that their numbers have to be so
high to easily replace them on the battlefield.
1. In early June Brigadier General Iraj Masjedi, in charge of the Quds
Force in Iraq, travelled to this country from Iran specified a certain number
of troops each Shiite militia group had to dispatch to Syria. Arrangements were
made to have around four to five thousands Iraqi Shiite militias sent to Syria
prior to the holy month of Ramadan when Muslims fast.
2. As Operation Aleppo began in early October, the Quds Force began
suffering heavy casualties. The death of Hossein Hamedani, a senior
Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commander who oversaw all Quds Force operations in
Syria, delivered a serious blow to the spirits of the Iraqi and Lebanese Shiite
militias dispatched to Syria. As a result, the operation could no longer
continue and render results with these forces only.
3. To this end, the Quds Force began dispatching a number of elite IRGC
members from the Saberin units. These forces also failed to provide any serious
results on the ground. Once again, the Quds Force had no option but to resort
to dispatching even further Iraqi Shiite militias and Afghan mercenaries to
Syria.
4. From early October a new round of militias associated to the Quds
Force, including Asaeb al-Haq, Kata’ib Hezbollah and al-Najba to Syria.
Although the militias had lost their spirits due to the high number of
casualties, the Quds Force provided them huge salaries and onlythrough such
measures were they able to prevent them from returning to Iraq.
5. In mid-November a large number of Asaeb and al-Najba militants were
killed near Aleppo. Quds Force chief Quds Force and his deputy, Gha’ani,
getting wounded on the ground, along with al-Najba militia leader Akram
al-Ka’bi, all played major roles in destroying their troops’ morale.
6. From then on the numbers and names of IRGC and militia members killed
on the ground were heard here and there. For example, in mid-November in the
span of just 24 hours 20 IRGC members and Iraqi-Lebanese militia troops were
killed near Aleppo. Sabbah Kadhem, a commander of the “Ansarrallah Ofiay Iraq”
group, was amongst those killed. In another case reports indicate Asaeb militia
members were retreating from battle and fell into an ambush placed by Syrian
fighters, leaving more than 40 of them killed and a number of others captured.
Two of the captured militia members were Asaeb commanders from Baghdad’s Sho’le
and Karkh regions.
7. In early December 600 Asaeb militia members were dispatched from Iraq
to Syria based on Quds Force orders. Asaeb leader Qeis al-Khazali became
committed to send another 200 militias from Iran to Syria before December 20th.
8. al-Najba leader Akram al-Ka’bi was wounded in a rocket attack
launched by Syrian fighters near Aleppo on Saturday, November 28th
along with a number of Lebanese Hezbollah commanders. High casualties and
senior Quds Force and Iraqi-Lebanese militia commanders being wounded severely lowered
the spirits of the Iraqi militias. This resulted in all groups ordering their troops
back to Iraq from Syria.
9. In another case after mid-December Asaeb militia members fell into a
Syrian fighters’ ambush near Aleppo. More than 80 of their members were killed
and others were taken captive.
10. Finally, again after mid-December, due to the high IRGC and Shiite
militia casualties suffered on the ground, the Quds Force decided to halt the
entire Aleppo operation and pulling back their troops. The IRGC has conducted
this retreat under the cover of troop reorganization and reconstruction of
ranks and files.
11. Due to their high casualties, and the resulting desertion by Iraqi
Shiite militias from Syria, the Quds Force dispatched a number of Iranian
mullahs to Iraqi Shiite militia training centers and halls to deliver speeches
about martyrdom and jihad to escalate their spirits.
12. Most of the Iraqi Shiite militias present in Syria alongside IRGC
troops belong to the al-Najba and Asaeb groups, and they have suffered the most
casualties. While the main Quds Force commanders in Syria have either been
wounded or pulled out of the battlefronts, this has left no motivation for the
militias to continue fighting. In mid-December in only one battle near Latakia
over 50 al-Najba militia fighters were killed.
13. In most of the regions Quds Force commanders are attempting to
inspire the Shiite militias to conduct attacks hoping the Russian air force
will provide air cover. The militias suffered severe casualties in most of the attacks
due to the lack of Russian air support. The militias also lack a coordination
system with the Quds Force, rendering high casualties on a daily basis and
forcing them to retreat from their positions.
14. The Quds Force has emphasized to all Iraqi Shiite militia leaders to
never publicize the true number of their casualties in Syria, and the bodies
have to be secretly transferred to Iraq for burial in their cities. The IRGC is
emphasizing that the revelation of the true number of deaths in Syria will
definitely weaken the spirit and morale of Iraqi Shiite militias back home and
they will refuse to dispatch to Syria in the future.
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