Iran sanctions relief: stability for the region or more instability?

January 2016

Following the implementation of the nuclear pact between Iran and the United States and European countries, the question is will the Middle East tread towards more stability or further instability?

U.S. President Barack Obama and his nuclear team is currently propagating new and unprecedented measures implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency to be assured of the Iranian regime not violating the agreements made and becoming certain Iran’s nuclear program will not seek military objectives. They also portray an image as if such monitoring measures have never been adopted to this day.

The U.S. and European countries, and others involved in this agreement have all been boasting and celebrating this recent “victory”. The Iranian regime is also celebrating and describing this development as a major triumph. The question troubling my mind is that which party has become victorious so far: U.S. & European countries, or the Iranian regime?

Mr. Obama, in his final year in office, showed the most interest in success for the deal, even more than Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei who described this as a historic development in a ceremony marking the sanctions relief. On the other hand U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, considering himself the godfather of this agreement, said this achievement will provide more security for the U.S. and its friends and allies in the Middle East and across the globe.

This development will strengthen stability and peace in the region, said European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, in charge of the P5+1 talks with Iran. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani described the nuclear pact as a “major victory for the patient people of Iran”.

However, the truth is completely different. This agreement limits the focus with Iran on just its nuclear program. However, the main issue on the table for the world vis-à-vis Iran is its export of extremism and fundamentalism, being hundreds of times more dangerous and destructive than Iran’s nuclear program. The truth is all of Iran’s measures are in line with these issues. If we take a look at the issues prior to the nuclear deal, Iran’s ballistic missile test was in violation of United Nations resolutions. Iran knew very well that the consequences of such a missile firing.

The question is why did Iran resort to such measures if it was aware of the consequences, and knew such a measure would be followed with further sanctions?

Senior Iranian regime officials understand very well that the end of the road of meddling in other countries will lead to a confrontation. On one hand Iran is seeking to increase its missile capabilities. On the other Iran is resorting to brouhaha in their propaganda to scare off their counterparts.

The truth is that one should not be hasty because this agreement has been built by Obama, and those accompanying him, on very weak foundations. Realities in the future will bring an end to all this. Neither the regime in Iran can realize change from within, nor can the delusions of Obama, Kerry or Mogherini change the Middle East geography, demographics and history.