June 2016
As recent
developments have made it crystal clear in Iraq, the Shiite coalition formed
through the efforts of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force following the
toppling of the former Iraqi government (Saddam Hussein) by the United States
is now crumbling from within and literally torn apart. Demonstrations and
rallies in the past few months, staged by the Shiite majorities in Baghdad and
southern Shiite provinces, witnessed a main slogan against the presence of the
Iranian regime and the Quds Force in Iraq. This came as a heavy blow for Tehran
in its efforts in Iraq.
The Iranian
regime’s main arm to gain influence and hegemony over the situation in Iraq,
parallel to pursuing its own policy, was the Shiite coalition, blueprinted and
crafted skillfully by the Quds Force and Tehran dictating their policies and
roadmaps. One of the most important measures by Iran during this period in Iraq
was determining the prime minister and appointing its puppet ministers to
control the situation on the ground in Iraq. Individuals who lacked any
qualification to serve as ministers or management roles, and were only
appointed due to their die-hard allegiance to Iran. To this end Iran enjoyed
the possibility of relying on its appointed agents and easily pursue its
objectives in Iraq. This was also the main element behind all the grant and
corruption in the Iraqi government.
During the
Sadrists’ demonstrations in Baghdad and southern provinces the protesters were
seen tearing and setting ablaze images of current and former Iranian supreme
leaders Ali Khamenei and Khomeini, respectively, installed at the gates of
Shiite parties’ offices. This was considered a very harsh insult for the
Iranian regime and has disrupted all its calculations for Iraq.
To launch a
restart for this situation, Iran must first reunite the torn apart Shiite
coalition. In this regard Iran’s Supreme National Security Council appointed
Iran’s ambassador to Iraq – himself a leading Quds Force member – as the man in
charge of this effort: to bring new life to the Shiite coalition with new
regulations and frameworks.
Danaie-Far,
Iran’s ambassador in Baghdad, began his measures in mid-January and on
Thursday, Jun 16th he invited the heads of all the pro-Iran Shiite
groups for a Ramadan iftar (dinner). These invitations continued for 10 nights
and all heads of Iraqi groups were invited in different nights. On the first
night, Ibrahim Jafari as the chair of the National Alliance, Nouri al-Maliki as
the main Iranian regime element in Iraq, Hamid Maale as the representative of
Hakim, Interior Minister Mohamed Ghaban representing the Badr Organization (in
for Hadi al-Ameri) and Hakem Zamoli and Jafar al-Mousawi from the Sadrists.
Iran’s
ambassador to Iraq went to Tehran prior to these invitations and provided a
status report on the Shiite National Alliance and the entire country of Iraq.
He was then briefed on the new policy adopted by the Supreme National Security
Council for Iraq and returned to his mission. The most important policy adopted
in the SNSC meeting was to reunite the Shiites in Iraq under new regulations.
The main
obstacle before the Shiite coalition is the Sadrists movement that in the past
few months has under no circumstances been willing to carry out the orders and
instructions issued by the Quds Force and the Iranian regime itself, and has
adopted a completely Iraqi approach and policy. The Sadrists are also the main
reason behind the Shiite coalition falling apart. During the past month the
Iranian ambassador to Iraq visited the city of Najaf to meet with Muqtada Sadr,
who refused to accept him. Once again during a meeting held between the
ambassador and Sadr the situation became very tense, leading to harsh verbal
exchanges and Sadr refused to succumb to Tehran’s demands. Sadr intends to form
a new faction consisting of Shiites, Sunnis and civil organizations in the face
of the pro-Iran Shiite coalition. If such an objective is successful, it will
deliver a serious blow to Iran’s goals in Iraq.
Following
the Ramadan dinner session Shiite groups held a session with the presence of
the Iranian ambassador. All the groups were briefed by the ambassador and the
Quds Force representative. Iran intends to carry out its own initiative and
reunite the Shiites, all before Sadr forms a new coalition. In this session the
Iranian ambassador instructed all Shiite groups that they must quickly get to
work and clarify their position with Sadr. They sent a message to Sadr through
his representative taking part in the session, Jafar al-Mousavi. Iran’s
ambassador in this session emphasized on the following:
- reunited
the National Alliance, consisting of Shiite groups
-
specifying new regulations for the Alliance to prevent previous scenarios, such
as the Sadrists pulling out of the group
- inviting
Sadr and al-Abadi into the Alliance, and if they refuse they are to be banished
from the Shiite community in Iraq
- Iraqi
Foreign Ministry (Jafari was present in the session) to confront measures by
the Saudi Ambassador in Baghdad, and controlling his movements
The groups
began their measures the day after being briefed, and in this regard Nouri
al-Maliki, chair of the State of Law coalition emphasized on differences and
divides inside the National Alliance and made a call to return to the past
status. Ibrahim Jafari said the National Alliance will not give up its
continuous efforts to maintain its unity, yet cannot change its existing
internal divides.
“The
measures carried out by Thamer al-Sahan, the Saudi Ambassador in Iraq, are
considered interference in Iraq’s internal affairs and what he is doing has
nothing to do with his role as an ambassador,” Jafari said.
Iran is
rallying with all its might to regain its influence, hegemony and control over
the situation in Iraq. Will it be able to achieve this goal and pursue its
policy against the U.S. is a question the future will answer.
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