Iraqi Prime
Minister Haider al-Abadi issued a 7-article statement on Sunday, August 9th
consisting of changes made in government ranks in line with realizing the
demonstrators’ demands. Al-Abadi enjoyed the support of senior religious
leaders in Iraq and the declaration of this reform package by al-Abadi was
considered a political earthquake by the Iranian regime, showing Tehran was
caught completely off guard.
1. Maliki is
at the epicentre of these anti-corruption measures. The slogans chanted by the
demonstrators, positions of political figures and the media propaganda in this
regard shows that Maliki – being at the helm as prime minister for 8 years – was the
main epicentre of government corruption pinpointed by the people.
2. Despite
ostensibly supporting al-Abadi’s actions, Maliki is actually terrified of the
upcoming consequences. The grant files concerning
Maliki include embezzlement in Ministry of Electricity contracts, arms purchases
from Russia, purchasing explosive-detecting devices, the 2014 budget, lands
divided amongst his inner circle and 50,000 “ghost soldiers” in his military
apparatus whose salaries were paid by the government.
3. Maliki is
now in a very weak position following al-Abadi’s reforms. He participated in a
ceremony held in al-Mothana Province commemorating the 1920 revolution and
said, “Today, the government enjoys the support of senior religious figures,
while previous government did not enjoy such support.” Maliki is saying don’t
blame him for everything, and others were also involved in bringing about the
status quo.
4. The Iranian regime’s ISNA news agency cited the Iraqi Supreme
Judicial Council saying this body began interrogating Baha al-Araji, Deputy
Prime Minister in Energy Affairs on charges of financial corruption. However,
al-Araji has denied all charges in this regard.
5. In
comparison to the first days of the recent demonstrations, Maliki’s name is
being mentioned much more often as the main element behind the corruption. This
subject has become a major part of the demonstrators’ slogans.
Iran’s
Measures
1.
Danaie-Far, Iran’s ambassador in Baghdad, went to Najaf on Sunday, August 9th
to meet with Muqtada Sadr, the representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani
and the representative of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei in Iraq. He asked
them not to back al-Abadi’s measures. Sadr did not provide a firm answer, yet
Baha al-Araji said in his press conference that they support al-Abadi’s
decisions.
2. The
important blow to the Iranian regime in this regard will be the elimination of
Maliki as Tehran’s main element in Iraq.
3. One of the
levers of pressure Iran may use against al-Abadi is pulling the Popular
Mobilization Forces out of the battlefields against ISIS. The Iranian embassy’s
evaluation is that since al-Abadi had sensed this threat he had a meeting with
Brett McGurk, the U.S. deputy special presidential envoy for the global
coalition to counter ISIS, prior to this decision. McGurk had assured him that
Iran’s actions will have no impact on al-Abadi’s measures.
4. The NINA
news agency in Iraq wired the stance taken by Firuzabadi, Iran’s armed forces
chief of staff supporting al-Abadi’s measures. “The Iraqi people must be aware
of various mistakes, invitation to rally invoked by specific and maybe
non-Islamic groups, bombing electricity lines from Iran to Iraq and other
destructive attacks,” he said.
5. There have
been no news reports in Iraqi media, however, ISNA reported PMF deputy Abu
Mahdi al-Mohandess and Badr Organization Secretary-General Hadi al-Ameri met
with Ayatollah Sistani and discussed their perspectives on how to direct the
PMF.
6. Other than
Firuzabadi, no other regime official have made any remarks about al-Abadi’s
reforms, and until 7 August 2015, the Iranian regime’s news media outlets had
remained neutral and only broadcasted short reports. However, from this day
forward it has begun depicting a picture through its media outlets that Abadi’s
reforms will not be as easy it may seem.
7. Iran is
completely confused and has yet to make a specific and public stance on the
recent political developments in Iraq. However, in seems it has welcomed this
step, while behind the scenes it seeks to make al-Abadi’s reforms futile in the
Parliament, and in the media it is has been emphasizing on the difficulty of
such measures.
Practical
Reform Measures Following al-Abadi’s Amendment
1. Various
measures have been seen from other government apparatus following the
elimination of the vice president and deputy prime minister posts. According to
Article 4 of the Prime Minister’s 7-point plan, the Foreign Ministry has fired
five ambassadors and a number of director generals.
2. The Iraqi
Ministry of Electricity has referred 49 officers, including senior generals,
lieutenant generals and brigadier generals to the Inspections Branch of this
ministry.
3. In line
with changes and a decrease in spending, the Municipalities and Housing &
Resettlement have combined under one ministry.
4. People are
demonstrating and chanting for change in the judiciary branch, referring to
judiciary chief Mad’hat Mahmoud by name.
5. There is
still no sign of al-Abadi continuing his measures. However, demonstrators and
political factions are calling on him to carry out deep-rooted steps. This is a
clear reference to the arrest and prosecution of Maliki.
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