Monday, 17 August 2015

Peace plan, or plan to save Assad

In the middle of August coinciding with the nuclear agreement signed between the P5+1 and Iran, the mullahs in Tehran presented a new “peace” plan for Syria with the foreign ministry being behind this new push.

As you are fully aware Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force is the main element assisting Bashar Assad to remain in power in Syria. The Quds Force considers itself is the main titleholder of any solution for Syria, and without the blessing of the Quds Force no plan will be approved for this country.
As claimed by the Quds Force, their ranks and files protected the Assad regime during the civil war; they were the ones who neutralized various Western plots and the timetables prepared by Turkey and Saudi Arabia; and they were the ones who prevented Bashar’s government from crumbling. Therefore, the Quds Force considers itself the sole proprietor of Syria and all plans are conditioned on its approval.
Although the Syria peace plan was prepared by Iran’s foreign ministry, the main articles have been codified by the Quds Force and then presented as a comprehensive plan to other countries.
Bashar Assad owes everything to Iran’s Quds Force because they were the main element allowing him to remain in Syria. Assad sent his family to Latakia at the start of the clashes, and he sent a message to the Russians to send him a ship to depart Syria. Iran’s Quds Force intervened after learning of such plans and prevented his departure.
Now, the question is has Bashar Assad agreed with Iran’s recent plans or not? Considering the fact that Assad is very much indebted to the Quds Force, of course he will agree to Tehran’s plot. The mullahs’ top diplomat, Mohammad Javad Zarif, had also gone to Syria this week to discuss Iran’s plan with Bashar Assad.

To this day details of this plan have not leaked anywhere, but as an expert on Iran’s terrorism, it can easily be predicted. Iran intends to begin negotiations with Syrian opposition groups and gain their alliance in the fight against ISIS. Through such a plan Bashar Assad would flee any accountability whatsoever. Iran intends to have a partnership government including Assad, the Sunnis and the Kurds established in Syria.
However, the Sunnis rejected Assad’s participation in a partnership government and Iran’s plan went down the drain. Afterwards the Kurds expressed their regrets in this regard and walked out. Iran’s plan failed miserably in its first steps.
Assad’s recent speech showed he is tired of the conditions on the ground in Syria and Iran has come to realize this quite well. Therefore, it is possible that Iran will set Bashar Assad aside and place one of its own men in his place.
Assad’s armed forces are also seriously crumbling, and this is exactly one of the main problems the Quds Force is facing. Bashar Assad’s army, consisting of more than 450,000 forces at the beginning of the civil war back in 2011, has degraded to merely 50,000 troops; whereas opposition forces have increased their ranks and files. Around 5,000 IRGC Quds Force members are currently fighting in Syria and 7,000 Iraq militants – known as Quds Force proxies – have also been dispatched to Syria. The fact that only a small number of Iraqi militants have been dispatched to Syria is that they have their own problems back home against ISIS. Moreover, there are also a number of Afghan proxies also fighting in Syria.
Currently, Assad forces are in drastic conditions in Syria and the only reason they are not crumbling completely is because of the presence of Quds Force and Iraqi militants.

Finally, my last words are to Syrian opposition groups: do not fall into any trap placed by the Iranian regime. Iran’s plan is aimed at completely annihilating the Syrian opposition. Don’t ever sit down and negotiate with Iran’s Quds Force, and your only talks with them should be through your weapons. The days of Assad’s regime are counting. After the serious blows it has suffered in Yemen and Iraq, Tehran has no other choice in Syria but to accept an all-out defeat. I yearn for the day that Bashar Assad is toppled by the brave and powerful Syrian nation.

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